In 2024, the global semiconductor market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, achieving a 19% year-on-year growth and reaching an unprecedented $628 billion in sales. This milestone marks the industry's emergence from the 2023 cyclical trough, entering a phase of structural growth driven by generative AI, automotive electronics, and advanced process technology.
I. Market Recovery: From Cyclical Trough to Structural Growth
Key Growth Drivers:
- AI computing chips (NVIDIA GPU, AMD MI series) and storage chips (HBM, DDR5) emerge as core growth drivers, with data center and server demand increasing from 24% to 34%
- Supply chain replenishment in H2 2024 drives memory chip price recovery: DRAM prices up 35% YoY, NAND up 20%
- TSMC's 3nm/5nm capacity reaches full utilization, with CoWoS advanced packaging yield exceeding 85%, supporting high-end AI chip production
II. Regional Competition and Supply Chain Reconstruction
US-East Asia Competition Intensifies:
- US "Chips and Science Act" attracts TSMC and Samsung investments, targeting 3x local capacity increase by 2032
- China expands mature process (28nm+) capacity, with IC design sales reaching 28% and wafer fab equipment investment accounting for 30% globally
- Samsung leads global revenue ($66.5B, +62.5% YoY) despite Korean memory exports decline (-42.5% YoY in February 2025)
European and Emerging Markets:
- EU "Chip Act" targets 20% local production share
- India and Malaysia attract packaging and testing investments through tax incentives
III. Technology Innovation Drive
AI Chip and Computing Power Race:
- Projected addition of 3-9 advanced logic chip fabs globally by 2030 to meet AI computing demands
- NVIDIA Blackwell architecture enters mass production; AMD launches AI PC processors with integrated NPU
- Google's 3nm Tensor G5 chip challenges existing market dynamics
Storage Technology Advancement:
- HBM becomes core growth driver; SK Hynix leads with HBM4 sample bandwidth
- Micron achieves full-year capacity utilization
- YMTC advances in HBM stacking technology, focusing on etching and thin film deposition
IV. Policy and Industrial Ecosystem
China's Localization Progress:
- Phase III Big Fund targets equipment and materials, aiming for 50% localization rate
- Breakthroughs in mask plates (Qingyi Optoelectronics 180nm production) and sputtering targets (Jiangfeng Electronics 5nm copper target TSMC verification)
Global Policy Landscape:
- US considers extending chip restrictions to mature processes, facing domestic industry dependence challenges
- EU environmental regulations increase chip manufacturing carbon footprint costs by 10-20%
V. Future Outlook and Market Evolution
Market Structure and Technology Integration:
- Projected 2027 scenario: China dominates mature processes (47% capacity), US/Korea lead advanced processes
- NVIDIA Blackwell architecture supports quantum algorithm optimization
- 3nm chip design costs exceed $500M, driving industry consolidation (2024 M&A exceeds $10B)
Investment Recommendations
Key Focus Areas:
- AI Computing: NVIDIA, AMD
- HBM Storage: SK Hynix, YMTC
- Third-Generation Semiconductors: Silicon Carbide, Gallium Nitride
- Localization Materials: Masks, Targets
Risk Factors: Potential geopolitical conflicts, advanced process R&D uncertainties, and escalating environmental compliance costs require careful consideration.