Global Chip Supply Chain

In 2025, the global chip supply chain is accelerating its transformation from globalization to regionalization, with the United States, China, and Europe forming differentiated competitive landscapes. This article provides an in-depth analysis of key trends such as supply chain regional restructuring, technology-driven changes, and surging AI chip demand, exploring the opportunities and challenges in future supply chain development.

I. Supply Chain Regional Restructuring: Geopolitics Driving Capacity Layout

United States Strengthens Advanced Process Leadership:

  • TSMC's Arizona factory has mass-produced 4nm chips and plans to launch 2nm process production line in 2025
  • Intel's Ohio factory accelerates Intel 18A (1.8nm) process, targeting 50% chip localization by 2030
  • Localization faces high cost challenges, with TSMC's US factory labor and energy costs driving up chip prices, while insufficient supply chain support constrains capacity ramp-up

China Leads in Mature Process Capacity:

  • Mainland China's 28nm and above mature process capacity accounts for 40%
  • SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor capture global order backflow, with local supply chain self-sufficiency rate rising to 60%
  • STMicroelectronics collaborates with Hua Hong to produce 40nm automotive MCU chips, highlighting Europe's dependence on China's mature capacity

Europe Accelerates Localization Strategy:

  • EU "Chip Act" promotes target of increasing local production capacity to 20%
  • Infineon and STMicroelectronics expand investment in silicon carbide and power devices, but technology gap still relies on Asian foundries

II. Technology-Driven Supply Chain Evolution

Sub-2nm Process Mass Production Competition:

  • TSMC's 2nm process begins mass production in H2, first adopting GAA architecture nanosheet transistor technology
  • Samsung's SF2 process focuses on mobile and AI fields, while Intel's 18A achieves breakthroughs in RibbonFET and backside power delivery
  • Sub-3nm process wafer demand surges, but EUV lithography machine capacity bottleneck constrains expansion, with ASML's annual delivery increasing only 15%

HBM4 Memory Technology Early Commercialization:

  • SK Hynix advances HBM4 mass production to H2 2025, supporting 16-layer stacking and 6.4GT/s transfer rate
  • TSMC's CoWoS packaging technology upgrades simultaneously, integrating 12 HBM4 chips on a single substrate
  • YMTC achieves breakthrough in HBM stacking technology, focusing equipment procurement on etching and thin film deposition, but yield rate still lags Korean manufacturers by about 10 percentage points

III. AI Chip Demand Surge and Supply Chain Bottlenecks

NVIDIA Dominates Wafer Supply:

  • NVIDIA accounts for 77% of global AI wafer supply, consuming 535,000 wafers in 2025
  • Blackwell architecture GB300 chip mass production drives data center computing demand up 150% YoY
  • 2026 Rubin architecture GPU roadmap announced, with performance 3.3x higher than Blackwell, NVLink technology innovation may reshape chip interconnection standards

Domestic Alternatives Accelerate:

  • Huawei Ascend 910B chip achieves 14nm localization, with computing performance comparable to NVIDIA A100, but sub-7nm process still relies on external foundries
  • Horizon Journey 6 and Black Sesame Wudang series high-end autonomous driving chips enter mass production, driving automotive-grade AI chip self-sufficiency rate to 35%

IV. Structural Contradictions and Risk Warnings

Technology Generation Gap Widens:

  • TSMC's 2nm yield reaches 75%, Samsung's 4nm process customers limited, SMIC competes in mature process market with price war
  • Memory chip market diverges, DRAM prices fall 20% YoY, while enterprise SSDs rise 35% due to AI demand

Regional Capacity Competition:

  • 38 new chip production lines added globally, Asia-Pacific region accounting for 64%. TSMC Nanjing factory 2nm project commissioning increases China's high-end logic chip self-sufficiency to 32%
  • Micron's Southeast Asia packaging and testing plant expansion, but US restrictions on Chinese equipment lead to 15% increase in key material import costs

V. Future Outlook: Technology Convergence and Dual-Track Market

Technology Collaborative Innovation:

  • Silicon photonic chip manufacturing technology matures, TSMC COUPE technology achieves optoelectronic integration, 2025 mass production of 1.6T optical engines drives data center energy efficiency up 40%
  • Quantum processors scale up, IBM's "Kookaburra" chip system exceeds 4,000 qubits, China's "Zuchongzhi-3" achieves breakthrough in error correction technology

Supply Chain Dual-Track Development:

  • By 2027, pattern of "China dominates mature processes (47% capacity) while US and South Korea monopolize advanced processes" may form, RISC-V architecture penetration in high-performance chips exceeds 25%
  • Geopolitical competition continues, US restrictive policies force domestic equipment replacement rate to increase to 50%, Phase III of Big Fund focuses on equipment and materials

Conclusions and Recommendations

The core logic of the global chip supply chain in 2025 is the geopolitically-driven regional restructuring and AI-driven technological generational leap. Enterprises should focus on:

  • Regional capacity layout (US advanced processes, China mature processes, European power devices)
  • Technology positioning (HBM4, silicon photonic integration, quantum computing)
  • Risk hedging (wafer shortage, material price increases, policy fluctuations)

Risk Warning: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts, lower-than-expected advanced process yields, and environmental protection costs rising beyond expectations.